Gaza Herald- According to the most extensive modelling to date, reductions in overseas aid could result in more than 22 million avoidable deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under five years old.
The Lancet Global Health researchers note a sharp decline in child deaths from infectious diseases over the past two decades, driven largely by donor-funded health programs in developing countries.
The researchers caution that sudden aid cuts by major donors such as the United States and the United Kingdom could undo much of the progress made.
The team estimated the impact by linking aid changes to mortality rates in recipient countries from 2002 to 2021 and projecting results under three scenarios: status quo, moderate aid reductions similar to recent years, and severe cuts reducing aid to around half of 2025 levels through the decade.
The model projects that severe aid cuts could lead to 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under five, while mild reductions would result in 9.4 million extra deaths, with 2.5 million among young children.
According to Prof. Davide Rasella of ISGlobal, the mild scenario is realistic based on current trends, while the extreme scenario reflects proposals from right-leaning parties in several countries, such as Reform UK, which has proposed reducing Britain’s aid budget by a further 90%, as reported by The Guardian.
Major donors such as Germany, the US, and Sweden have announced substantial cuts, with the US reducing aid from $68 billion to $32 billion in 2025 and the UK planning to lower aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP by 2028 to accommodate higher defense spending.
The researchers estimate that past aid has cut under-five deaths by 39%, with the largest impact on infectious diseases and malnutrition-related deaths.
