Gaza Herald—Mounting scientific evidence continues to expose the staggering human cost of Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza, revealing that the true scale of death may be far greater than previously documented. As mass destruction, starvation, and the collapse of medical care devastate the population, new research confirms what many Palestinians and human rights observers have long warned, that thousands of deaths have gone uncounted amid the chaos of war and blockade.
A new study published in The Lancet Global Health journal found that the number of violent deaths in Gaza during the first 16 months of Israel’s war exceeded 75,000, significantly higher than official figures reported at the time. The Gaza Mortality Survey estimated approximately 75,200 violent deaths between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025, compared to the Palestinian Health Ministry’s reported toll of 49,090 on that same date. Researchers concluded that the actual number of violent deaths was roughly 35 percent higher than official estimates.
The study also confirmed the accuracy of the Health Ministry’s reporting regarding the demographic composition of those killed. Researchers found that women, children, and elderly people accounted for 42,200 of the violent deaths, representing 56 percent of the total. The authors stated that the findings suggest that approximately 3.4 percent of Gaza’s entire population had been killed violently by early January 2025, while many additional deaths likely resulted indirectly from starvation, disease, and the collapse of healthcare systems.
The research team included specialists in economics, demography, epidemiology, and population studies. One of the authors, economist Michael Spagat of Royal Holloway, said the study estimated an additional 8,200 indirect deaths caused by war-related conditions such as malnutrition and untreated illnesses. These deaths reflect the broader humanitarian catastrophe created by the siege, destruction of hospitals, and severe restrictions on food and medical aid.
The study was based on interviews conducted with 2,000 households representing 9,729 individuals across Gaza. Participants provided detailed information about family members who had been killed. The survey was carried out by trained Palestinian researchers using scientifically recognized sampling methods to ensure accurate representation of the population.
Researchers noted that their work represents one of the first population-based mortality surveys conducted during an active war in Gaza. They emphasized that the Health Ministry’s figures remain reliable, describing them as conservative estimates that likely represent a minimum baseline rather than an exaggeration.
As of this week, Gaza’s Health Ministry reports that at least 72,063 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023. Even Israeli military officials have acknowledged death toll figures approaching 70,000, further reinforcing the scale of devastation.
Other independent research supports these findings. The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research estimated that more than 78,000 people were killed between October 2023 and December 2024. A previous Lancet study also found that official figures had undercounted deaths by approximately 41 percent during the early phase of the genocide.
The authors of the new study emphasized that multiple independent methodologies have now confirmed that official death toll figures likely underestimate the true scale of killing. The consistency between different scientific approaches strengthens confidence in the conclusion that the human losses in Gaza are far greater than previously understood.
These findings highlight not only the immense scale of violence inflicted on Gaza’s civilian population, but also the lasting consequences of siege, starvation, and systematic destruction that continue to claim lives beyond the battlefield.
